Today there are only a few hours of trading in markets and it hard to get excited about doing much of anything in investing after a off day yesterday and a weekend ahead. Semi-illiquid stocks will be even more illiquid today.
Interest rates are holding at 4.22% and there is no new economic news to motivate prices much up or down. The move lower in rates over the last week or so did finally give our portfolios a little boost–not giant, but at least prices were not falling. This little boost moved some of our portfolios to new all time highs (we don’t withdraw any money from investment accounts), but I have low expectations for the next few months–and 2025 will be a tough year trying to make my 7% hurdle—4-5% is likely easy, but 7%?
Well we have our eldest grand daughter with us today and my wife and her will do our holiday decorating–I am thankful that she will get me out of that task which is on the bottom of my list of favorite things to do.
Well lets get the day started–and coast into the weekend.
Nice – closed out November here too. My accounts have done well YTD:
Taxable: +6.9%
Roth: +13.0%
Deferred IRA: +12.2%
Trading/Margin: +41.0%
Blended for the first three comes to +11.9% and all include divvy/interest income (which is in the mid-6% range overall) and a bit of covered call writing. So far, this is the best year of the last 4 total which have been: +11.9, +10.7%, -15.3%, +11.2%. Luckily, the -15% year was with a much small amount of equity – I had more than half still in my TSP G Fund drawing about +2-3% so, I guess my avg that year might have been -6%? The same applies to the previous year where the +11.2% should be tempered to maybe +7%
Trading account is smaller (keep it at $75K) and have been selling short weekly option strangles, mainly against NVDA, but others on occasion. It’s money that, if I lost it all, would not materially impact me to a great degree.
I can survive pretty easily with my SS and pension but need about +3% on my current overall equity to maintain the same standard of living as I had while working and I draw that down monthly if I want/need it. That leaves with with an excess +3.5% to combat inflation (SS and pension have annual COLA).
I am grateful for sites like this that have enabled me to manage my own resources…Happy December to all!
Managed to snag a brand new MA muni bond (10K) worth but this time single family backed. For some reason there was only approx 5 million worth of this 2049 4.6% tax free issue out of a much bigger issue of some that was taxable and some appearing to be more special for certain ?buyers?.
I was checking for days in the secondary market but had almost given up hope of getting a bite until late Friday afternoon some popped up for a very decent price. So the laddering has begun (2059 first purchase and 2049 this time) and I need to find some other types of muni from MA like transportation, GO, etc.. with different maturities and benefits.
Interesting how the interest rates going down on the 10 and 30 really show up pretty instantly in the muni market. I would have thought there would be a bit of a lag as people create sell orders and let them sit until they get a bite but many change price daily for what little is available that is good. Still getting a feel for things. Nothing like buying BB or preferred.
Congrats, FC. It can be slow going, but glad to see you got a couple bites. Sometimes odd lots pop up when a small guy simply wants exit liquidity. The new issue market has been slow, but I would expect it to pick up in the new year.
Tim, I also wonder what the New year will bring. Along with the lower returns you are expecting is there more room for the stock market to grow to new highs? I think yes there is more room for the bubble to grow. Tex’s comments in the sandbox about being 100% certain about our investments is so true. It may be harder to achieve that 7% return without higher risk. I remember a year or more ago you posted about wanting a 7 to 8% return. Fido is showing my wife’s account is up 7% even with her taking withdrawals.
TDS-V did a 12:50pm est shenanigans selling special. Picked some up under $19 right before close. 7.8% qdi with billions in cash coming next year on us cellular and spectrum sales.
I tied it off Tuesday at 3pm. Phwwww what a year
You are a wise man, Tim. I will implement your holiday decorating plans. Happy holidays.
Last trading day of the month. Normally active.
I have an opposite expectation for today . Thin holiday volume + Rebalancing / Repositioning of Preferred ETFs may open good opportunities